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Giuliani Lead Over Clinton In Florida Hints At Backlash TAMPA - Rudy Giuliani has moved to a lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in Florida in a new poll, which also suggests that the boycott of Florida by Democratic candidates may be harming their chances of winning Florida in the 2008 election. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey, done for The Tampa Tribune and other news agencies, showed Giuliani, former New York City mayor, leading Sen. Clinton of New York by 50 percent to 43 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll also showed Fred Thompson, former Tennessee senator, leading Clinton by 4 percentage points - equal to the poll's error margin and therefore statistically a tie - and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading her by 1 point. In the poll, respondents were also asked whether they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who pledged not to campaign in Florida because of the state's early primary date. A fifth of the respondents, 20 percent, said yes, while 74 percent said the boycott would have no effect on their vote and 6 percent said they weren't sure. But undecided and no-party voters said their votes were more likely to be affected. Among respondents who don't consider themselves allied to either party, 26 percent said they would be less likely to vote for a boycotting candidate, and among undecided voters, 33 percent said so. In those categories, the smaller number of respondents would make the error margin larger. The poll considered respondents "undecided" if they gave an undecided answer in any of three questions matching Clinton against Giuliani, Romney and Thompson. Pollster Brad Coker said the numbers indicate that the decision of the Democratic candidates not to campaign in Florida in advance of the Jan. 29 primary "could come back to hurt the party in the general election." At the request of the Democratic parties in the states that have early primary slots under the national party's schedule - Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina - the leading Democratic candidates, including Clinton, have said they won't campaign in Florida before Florida's Jan. 29 primary, except to raise money. Democrats, including Sen. Bill Nelson, have predicted that the boycott pledge would harm their party's 2008 chances in Florida, regardless who their nominee is. As evidence, they've cited other polls in summer and early fall that had shown Clinton narrowly leading Giuliani, then slipping behind him after the boycott pledge took effect. Those polls also showed no-party voters saying the boycott would affect their decision, in numbers similar to those in the new Mason-Dixon poll. Coker hasn't previously done a poll matching Democratic candidates against Republicans, and said he's not sure whether the boycott has hurt Clinton's standings. Coker said his findings prove only that the issue "potentially" could hurt the Democratic nominee. "It will be interesting to see whether by next Labor Day anybody cares any more," he said. "But at this point, it seems to be rubbing some voters in the swing groups the wrong way." Coker noted that the one-third of undecided voters who said in his poll that the issue would affect their vote could translate to "1 [[percent] or 2 percent" of the actual voters on Election Day in 2008. "As we all know, in Florida, that can be the difference between winning and losing." The Clinton campaign didn't respond to requests for comment on the poll. State Republican Party chairman Jim Greer said the poll indicates, "Hillary Clinton is out of touch with mainstream Florida and voters are angry at the Democrat candidates for boycotting Florida and using the state as their own personal ATM machines." Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com. |